GDP forecasts by Goldman, JPMorgan, Citi, Stanchart

Workers work at a swimwear factory in Jinjiang, southeast China’s Fujian Province, on Tuesday, September 28, 2021.

China advantage | Barcroft Media | Getty Images

BEIJING – Ahead of China’s quarterly growth figures on Monday, most major investment banks cut their economic forecasts for the year and warned that sudden power outages and a downturn in the property market could hamper growth.

CNBC has tracked full-year GDP estimates for China from 13 major banks, 10 of which have lowered their forecasts since August. The median forecast is 8.2% growth this year, after recent cuts. This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous median forecast.

Among the companies tracked by CNBC, Japanese investment bank Nomura has the lowest full-year forecast for China at 7.7%. Southeast Asia’s largest bank, DBS, has the highest ratio of 8.8%.

Here are the banks’ forecasts for the full year:

Banks that lowered China’s GDP forecast

August

  • ANZ: reduced to 8.3%, from 8.8%
  • Morgan Stanley: reduced to 7.9%, from 8.2%

September

  • US bank: reduced to 8%, from 8.3%
  • City: reduced to 8.2% from 8.7%
  • German Bank: reduced to 8.4%, from 8.9%
  • Goldman Sachs: reduced to 7.8%, from 8.2%
  • HSBC: reduced to 8.3%, from 8.5%
  • Nomura: reduced to 7.7%, from 8.2%

October

  • Standard Chartered: reduced to 8.2% from 8.8%
  • JP Morgan: reduced to 8.3% from 8.7%

Banks that did not change the outlook for China

  • Swiss credit: 8.2%.
  • DBS: 8.8%.
  • UBS: 8.2%.

China’s economic landscape

Downside factors for growth have mounted this year, from slower-than-expected consumer spending to devastating floods. Adding to the uncertainty is Beijing’s widespread regulatory crackdown, including on debt-laden property developers and alleged monopolistic behavior by internet technology giants.

Strong export growth remains a bright spot. China’s economic expansion is still on track to surpass the International Monetary Fund’s global growth forecast of 5.9%.

Analysts said China is seizing the opportunity this year to make painful but necessary adjustments for the economy. The official target for GDP of more than 6% this year is well below what investment banks are betting on.

– CNBC’s Gabrielle C. contributed to this report.

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